A Brain Age Residual Biomarker (BARB): Leveraging MRI-Based Models to Detect Latent Health Conditions in U.S. Veterans

Age prediction using brain imaging, such as MRIs, has achieved promising results, with several studies identifying the model's residual as a potential biomarker for chronic disease states. In this study, we developed a brain age predictive model using a dataset of 1,220 U.S. veterans (18--80 years) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on two-dimensional slices of axial T2-weighted fast spin-echo and T2-weighted fluid attenuated inversion recovery MRI images. The model, incorporating a degree-3 polynomial ensemble, achieved an $R^{2}$ of 0.816 on the testing set. Images were acquired at the level of the anterior commissure and the frontal horns of the lateral ventricles. Residual analysis was performed to assess its potential as a biomarker for five ICD-coded conditions: hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), illicit substance abuse/dependence (SAD), and alcohol abuse/dependence (AAD). Residuals grouped by the number of ICD-coded conditions demonstrated different trends that were statistically significant ($p = 0.002$), suggesting a relationship between disease states and predicted brain age. This association was particularly pronounced in patients over 49 years, where negative residuals (indicating advanced brain aging) correlated with the presence of multiple ICD codes. These findings support the potential of residuals as biomarkers for detecting latent health conditions.

Advances in Artificial Intelligence forDiabetes Prediction: Insights from a Systematic Literature Review

This systematic review explores the use of machine learning (ML) in predicting diabetes, focusing on datasets, algorithms, training methods, and evaluation metrics. It examines datasets like the Singapore National Diabetic Retinopathy Screening program, REPLACE-BG, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and Pima Indians Diabetes Database. The review assesses the performance of ML algorithms like CNN, SVM, Logistic Regression, and XGBoost in predicting diabetes outcomes. The study emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and ethical considerations in ML-based diabetes prediction models.

Disparate Model Performance and Stability in Machine Learning Clinical Support for Diabetes and Heart Diseases

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are vital for supporting clinical decision-making in biomedical informatics. However, their predictive performance can vary across demographic groups, often due to the underrepresentation of historically marginalized populations in training datasets. The investigation reveals widespread sex- and age-related inequities in chronic disease datasets and their derived ML models. Thus, a novel analytical framework is introduced, combining systematic arbitrariness with traditional metrics like accuracy and data complexity. The analysis of data from over 25,000 individuals with chronic diseases revealed mild sex-related disparities, favoring predictive accuracy for males, and significant age-related differences, with better accuracy for younger patients. Notably, older patients showed inconsistent predictive accuracy across seven datasets, linked to higher data complexity and lower model performance. This highlights that representativeness in training data alone does not guarantee equitable outcomes, and model arbitrariness must be addressed before deploying models in clinical settings.

A Novel Machine Learning Classifier Based on Genetic Algorithms and Data Importance Reformatting

In this paper, a novel classification algorithm that is based on Data Importance (DI) reformatting and Genetic Algorithms (GA) named GADIC is proposed to overcome the issues related to the nature of data which may hinder the performance of the Machine Learning (ML) classifiers. GADIC comprises three phases which are data reformatting phase which depends on DI concept, training phase where GA is applied on the reformatted training dataset, and testing phase where the instances of the reformatted testing dataset are being averaged based on similar instances in the training dataset. GADIC is an approach that utilizes the exiting ML classifiers with involvement of data reformatting, using GA to tune the inputs, and averaging the similar instances to the unknown instance. The averaging of the instances becomes the unknown instance to be classified in the stage of testing. GADIC has been tested on five existing ML classifiers which are Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), and Na\"ive Bayes (NB). All were evaluated using seven open-source UCI ML repository and Kaggle datasets which are Cleveland heart disease, Indian liver patient, Pima Indian diabetes, employee future prediction, telecom churn prediction, bank customer churn, and tech students. In terms of accuracy, the results showed that, with the exception of approximately 1% decrease in the accuracy of NB classifier in Cleveland heart disease dataset, GADIC significantly enhanced the performance of most ML classifiers using various datasets. In addition, KNN with GADIC showed the greatest performance gain when compared with other ML classifiers with GADIC followed by SVM while LR had the lowest improvement. The lowest average improvement that GADIC could achieve is 5.96%, whereas the maximum average improvement reached 16.79%.

Quantitative Predictive Monitoring and Control for Safe Human-Machine Interaction

There is a growing trend toward AI systems interacting with humans to revolutionize a range of application domains such as healthcare and transportation. However, unsafe human-machine interaction can lead to catastrophic failures. We propose a novel approach that predicts future states by accounting for the uncertainty of human interaction, monitors whether predictions satisfy or violate safety requirements, and adapts control actions based on the predictive monitoring results. Specifically, we develop a new quantitative predictive monitor based on Signal Temporal Logic with Uncertainty (STL-U) to compute a robustness degree interval, which indicates the extent to which a sequence of uncertain predictions satisfies or violates an STL-U requirement. We also develop a new loss function to guide the uncertainty calibration of Bayesian deep learning and a new adaptive control method, both of which leverage STL-U quantitative predictive monitoring results. We apply the proposed approach to two case studies: Type 1 Diabetes management and semi-autonomous driving. Experiments show that the proposed approach improves safety and effectiveness in both case studies.

Let Curves Speak: A Continuous Glucose Monitor based Large Sensor Foundation Model for Diabetes Management

While previous studies of AI in diabetes management focus on long-term risk, research on near-future glucose prediction remains limited but important as it enables timely diabetes self-management. Integrating AI with continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) holds promise for near-future glucose prediction. However, existing models have limitations in capturing patterns of blood glucose fluctuations and demonstrate poor generalizability. A robust approach is needed to leverage massive CGM data for near-future glucose prediction. We propose large sensor models (LSMs) to capture knowledge in CGM data by modeling patients as sequences of glucose. CGM-LSM is pretrained on 15.96 million glucose records from 592 diabetes patients for near-future glucose prediction. We evaluated CGM-LSM against state-of-the-art methods using the OhioT1DM dataset across various metrics, prediction horizons, and unseen patients. Additionally, we assessed its generalizability across factors like diabetes type, age, gender, and hour of day. CGM-LSM achieved exceptional performance, with an rMSE of 29.81 mg/dL for type 1 diabetes patients and 23.49 mg/dL for type 2 diabetes patients in a two-hour prediction horizon. For the OhioT1DM dataset, CGM-LSM achieved a one-hour rMSE of 15.64 mg/dL, halving the previous best of 31.97 mg/dL. Robustness analyses revealed consistent performance not only for unseen patients and future periods, but also across diabetes type, age, and gender. The model demonstrated adaptability to different hours of day, maintaining accuracy across periods of various activity intensity levels. CGM-LSM represents a transformative step in diabetes management by leveraging pretraining to uncover latent glucose generation patterns in sensor data. Our findings also underscore the broader potential of LSMs to drive innovation across domains involving complex sensor data.

Predicting Emergency Department Visits for Patients with Type II Diabetes

Over 30 million Americans are affected by Type II diabetes (T2D), a treatable condition with significant health risks. This study aims to develop and validate predictive models using machine learning (ML) techniques to estimate emergency department (ED) visits among patients with T2D. Data for these patients was obtained from the HealthShare Exchange (HSX), focusing on demographic details, diagnoses, and vital signs. Our sample contained 34,151 patients diagnosed with T2D which resulted in 703,065 visits overall between 2017 and 2021. A workflow integrated EMR data with SDoH for ML predictions. A total of 87 out of 2,555 features were selected for model construction. Various machine learning algorithms, including CatBoost, Ensemble Learning, K-nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Classification (SVC), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were employed with tenfold cross-validation to predict whether a patient is at risk of an ED visit. The ROC curves for Random Forest, XGBoost, Ensemble Learning, CatBoost, KNN, and SVC, were 0.82, 0.82, 0.82, 0.81, 0.72, 0.68, respectively. Ensemble Learning and Random Forest models demonstrated superior predictive performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability. These models are reliable tools for predicting risk of ED visits among patients with T2D. They can estimate future ED demand and assist clinicians in identifying critical factors associated with ED utilization, enabling early interventions to reduce such visits. The top five important features were age, the difference between visitation gaps, visitation gaps, R10 or abdominal and pelvic pain, and the Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) for income.

Electronic Health Records-Based Data-Driven Diabetes Knowledge Unveiling and Risk Prognosis

In the healthcare sector, the application of deep learning technologies has revolutionized data analysis and disease forecasting. This is particularly evident in the field of diabetes, where the deep analysis of Electronic Health Records (EHR) has unlocked new opportunities for early detection and effective intervention strategies. Our research presents an innovative model that synergizes the capabilities of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks-Conditional Random Field (BiLSTM-CRF) with a fusion of XGBoost and Logistic Regression. This model is designed to enhance the accuracy of diabetes risk prediction by conducting an in-depth analysis of electronic medical records data. The first phase of our approach involves employing BiLSTM-CRF to delve into the temporal characteristics and latent patterns present in EHR data. This method effectively uncovers the progression trends of diabetes, which are often hidden in the complex data structures of medical records. The second phase leverages the combined strength of XGBoost and Logistic Regression to classify these extracted features and evaluate associated risks. This dual approach facilitates a more nuanced and precise prediction of diabetes, outperforming traditional models, particularly in handling multifaceted and nonlinear medical datasets. Our research demonstrates a notable advancement in diabetes prediction over traditional methods, showcasing the effectiveness of our combined BiLSTM-CRF, XGBoost, and Logistic Regression model. This study highlights the value of data-driven strategies in clinical decision-making, equipping healthcare professionals with precise tools for early detection and intervention. By enabling personalized treatment and timely care, our approach signifies progress in incorporating advanced analytics in healthcare, potentially improving outcomes for diabetes and other chronic conditions.

Exploring Long-Term Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Microvascular Complications

Electronic healthcare records (EHR) contain a huge wealth of data that can support the prediction of clinical outcomes. EHR data is often stored and analysed using clinical codes (ICD10, SNOMED), however these can differ across registries and healthcare providers. Integrating data across systems involves mapping between different clinical ontologies requiring domain expertise, and at times resulting in data loss. To overcome this, code-agnostic models have been proposed. We assess the effectiveness of a code-agnostic representation approach on the task of long-term microvascular complication prediction for individuals living with Type 2 Diabetes. Our method encodes individual EHRs as text using fine-tuned, pretrained clinical language models. Leveraging large-scale EHR data from the UK, we employ a multi-label approach to simultaneously predict the risk of microvascular complications across 1-, 5-, and 10-year windows. We demonstrate that a code-agnostic approach outperforms a code-based model and illustrate that performance is better with longer prediction windows but is biased to the first occurring complication. Overall, we highlight that context length is vitally important for model performance. This study highlights the possibility of including data from across different clinical ontologies and is a starting point for generalisable clinical models.

Machine Learning Algorithms for Detecting Mental Stress in College Students

In today's world, stress is a big problem that affects people's health and happiness. More and more people are feeling stressed out, which can lead to lots of health issues like breathing problems, feeling overwhelmed, heart attack, diabetes, etc. This work endeavors to forecast stress and non-stress occurrences among college students by applying various machine learning algorithms: Decision Trees, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, AdaBoost, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and K-nearest Neighbors. The primary objective of this work is to leverage a research study to predict and mitigate stress and non-stress based on the collected questionnaire dataset. We conducted a workshop with the primary goal of studying the stress levels found among the students. This workshop was attended by Approximately 843 students aged between 18 to 21 years old. A questionnaire was given to the students validated under the guidance of the experts from the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India, on which our dataset is based. The survey consists of 28 questions, aiming to comprehensively understand the multidimensional aspects of stress, including emotional well-being, physical health, academic performance, relationships, and leisure. This work finds that Support Vector Machines have a maximum accuracy for Stress, reaching 95\%. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of stress determinants. It aims to improve college student's overall quality of life and academic success, addressing the multifaceted nature of stress.